Simulating Evolution of Technology: an Aid to Energy Policy Analysis a Case Study of Strategies to Control Greenhouse Gases in Canada

..................................................................................................................... iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS .................................................................................................v TABLE OF CONTENTS ................................................................................................ vi LIST OF TABLES .............................................................................................................x LIST OF FIGURES ....................................................................................................... xiii 1. THE NATURE OF THE PROBLEM..........................................................................1 1.1 THE PROBLEM.................................................................................................................1 1.2 THE OBJECTIVE...............................................................................................................2 1.3 BACKGROUND.................................................................................................................2 1.3.1 The Policy Issue: Meeting CO2 Emissions Targets ................................................3 1.3.2 The Policy Dilemma................................................................................................5 1.4 AN ENERGY SYSTEM.......................................................................................................5 1.4.1 The Demand Component.........................................................................................7 1.4.2 The Supply Component ...........................................................................................8 1.4.3 The Macroeconomic Component ............................................................................8 1.5 SIMULATION OF ENERGY DEMAND..................................................................................9 1.5.1 Modelling Methods Used to Simulate Energy Demand ........................................10 1.5.2 The Top-down Bottom-up Diversity ...................................................................17 1.6 UNCERTAINTIES, DATA AND THE MODELLING FRAMEWORK.........................................20 1.6.1 Addressing Uncertainties in Modelling Energy Demand .....................................20 1.6.2 The Model .............................................................................................................25 1.7 OUTLINE .......................................................................................................................28 1.8 CHAPTER BIBLIOGRAPHY ..............................................................................................28 2. METHODS ...................................................................................................................33 2.1. INFORMATION FROM THE OTHER COMPONENTS OF THE ENERGY SYSTEM ....................35 2.2. AN ANALYSIS TOOL FOR ENERGY DEMAND, ISTUM ..................................................38 2.2.1. ISTUM Structure, Energy Flow Models ..............................................................39 2.2.2. Technology Evolution Rather Than Energy-Demand..........................................43 2.3. AN INTEGRATED ENERGY ANALYSIS TOOL; SUPPORTING DATA AND MODELS............56 2.3.1. Technology Database and the Data.....................................................................57 2.3.2. Macroeconomic Inputs.........................................................................................65 2.3.3. Inputs of Fuel and Electricity Prices to ISTUM ..................................................67